dimanche 6 novembre 2011

Forza ITALIA...

North Italy's success story amid faltering faith in Rome

On the fault line of the eurozone, perched between floundering Rome and efficient Vienna, the small province of South Tyrol is showing that Italy can be economically successful, writes Harriet Alexander in Bolzano.

Luis Durnwalder: Bolzano Italy
Bolzano's regional president Luis Durnwalder
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It is 5am on a crisp Alpine morning, and in the shadow of the Dolomite peaks, an orderly queue is forming in the neatly-swept platz of the mountain town of Bolzano. Striding briskly across the cobbles, the townsfolk wait to petition their regional president Luis Durnwalder, who, between the hours of 6am and 8am, holds a surgery with customary efficiency.

This is not Germany, Austria, or Switzerland, however.

It is Italy – a nation not known for its work ethic or admiration of rules and regulations, and one which, last week, seemed to be teetering on the brink of financial and political meltdown.

"The rest of Italy definitely envies us," said Mr Durnwalder, who is president of the semi-autonomous South Tyrol region. The area, with its bilingual German and Italian population, sits on the geographic, political and cultural fault line of the eurozone. It has almost no unemployment, its inhabitants are among the richest in the country, and in stark contrast to city halls elsewhere in Italy, the local administration has no debt.

"The rest of Italy envies the results," he adds with a chuckle. "But not the work."

Mr Durnwalder, 70, looked on with a deep sigh of exasperation on Wednesday as Silvio Berlusconi, the embattled prime minister, was forced by EU leaders to go to Brussels with a 14-page plan to rescue Italy from economic crisis.

Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy, is again at the centre of the debt crisis, as fears grow that its borrowing costs could hit levels that overwhelm the capacity of the bloc to provide support amid chronic political instability in Rome. The situation was described as "confused and dramatic" last week by Mario Draghi, the new head of the European Central Bank - who himself is an Italian.

Italy has the second highest public debt in the eurozone after Greece – the equivalent of 120 per cent of GDP – and is suffering from chronically stagnant growth. The three main credit agencies have all downgraded Italy recently, meaning that its economy is judged to be less secure than those of Slovakia and Estonia – the two poorest eurozone countries.

South Tyrol, by contrast, an area of 3,000 square miles and 500,000 inhabitants that retains strong control over its own finances, retains Triple A Star credit rating.

Average GDP per head in the area around Bolzano was €34,600 - more than double that of Sicily, which has a similar degree of autonomy - and South Tyrol's unemployment is barely two per cent. In Sicily it is around 25 per cent, and the regional economy is blighted by corruption, low productivity and poor administration.

The rest of Italy, says Mr Durnwalder, must now likewise learn to live within their means, as they do in the Alpine valleys he calls home.

"We have always had a better economic situation in the north; we work hard, with energy, and use our resources well," he said. "The north has to work to support the south and pay for it.

"Italy is a sick country, but it can be made healthy if population ready to take medicine."

Rather like a naughty schoolboy handing in homework that was very, very overdue, the 14 page document Mr Berlusconi handed to fellow European leaders promises to raise €15 billion over three years by selling off long-moribund state assets and slashing government costs.

In desperate late-night phone calls beforehand, he also persuaded his coalition partner Umberto Bossi of the Northern League to support his proposal to increase the retirement age to 67. But in an indication of the chaotic state of Italian politics, that proposal resulted in a punch-up in parliament, as an argument over the policy descended into a brawl.

Last week there were claims in the Italian press that Mr Berlusconi had made a secret pact with Mr Bossi to call early elections next year, in return for approval of his economic document.

The prime minister angrily denied the reports - dismissing it as a scurilous plot to oust him and claiming that an election campaign in the middle of the euro crisis would be "very seriously damaging to Italy".

But the clamour for him to step down is deafening.

Rioting over austerity measures broke out in Rome the day after he survived a confidence vote, and recent polls show that 62 per cent of Italians think he should step down.

Much of the problem is blamed squarely on his shoulders, and the ongoing sleaze-related criminal charges are, critics say, a fatal distraction at the moment Mr Berlusconi most needs to be in control.

He is currently on trial for bribing a witness, tax fraud and paying for sex with a pole-dancer when she was just 17 - as well as abusing his powers by springing her from custody when she was arrested on suspicion of theft.

"Silvio Berlusconi is not interested in the economy," tutted Mr Durnwalder, sitting back in a leather chair in his spacious office, where oil paintings of village life in the surrounding Dolomites and Alps hang on the walls.

"He promised a lot, but has repeatedly failed to deliver. It will happen again with this rescue plan; the people just don't believe him any more.

"The most telling thing is that when, last week, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy were asked about Berlusconi, they just laughed! He does not give a good image of Italy."

While barely a week goes by without Mr Berlusconi's shaky coalition facing a no-confidence vote, Mr Durnwalder is all but uncontested in his northern fiefdom. He has controlled South Tyrol, one of five semi autonomous regions of Italy, since 1989, making him Italy's longest serving ruler. Indeed, one of the country's main political problems, he argues, is that there is no continuity or stability elsewhere.

"In the time I have been in power, there have been 17 different interior ministers," he said. "Most governments only last nine or ten months.

"They come to power for a short time, want to make their mark and win votes by beginning dramatic, spectacular projects, but all they do is create more debt."

Born to a farming family – "with 11 children and five cows, 1,200 metres up in the hills" – Mr Durnwalder studied agriculture and law before becoming first a local mayor, then entering regional politics.

A jovial bear of a man with a bone-crunchingly firm handshake, he has little time for what are widely seen in the north as lazy, work-shy southern Italians. He remedy would begin with honesty – telling the people how bad the situation is, and explaining to them that, for example, the retirement age must be increased because people are living longer and there are fewer economically active members of society.

In South Tyrol, 90 per cent of the taxes collected are spent within the region, meaning that he is able to channel the levys directly into new schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Such fiscal federalism encourages people to pay their taxes, and, he says, should be introduced across the country.

"We have a different way of thinking here in the north, and that's our strength," he said. "We pay our taxes, we work hard, we save and invest.

This region is the point where the northern work ethic meets the southern way of life, and is the best of both worlds. We are not as stubborn as Germany, but nor are we as chaotic as Italy."

The stylish town of Bolzano, which was part of Austria until after the First World War, shows clearly its mix of Teutonic and Latin influences. Carefully-tended vineyards and orchards sweep up the surrounding hillsides; the peaks often crowned with fairytale castles looking down on the valleys.

And the 13th century buildings, their smart, pastel-coloured facades decorated with faded frescoes, have far more in common with Bavarian beer halls than stradas in Sicily or Rome. But while local restaurants sell excellent pizza and pasta as well as wurstel and goulash, some residents would happily part company with Italy altogether.

"We have much more in common with Austrian tradition than Italian," said Beate Hellmundt, 40, selling hand-crafted wooden bowls and glass paintings inside a pretty merchant's palace, dating from 1635. "We work hard, we pay our taxes, and I wish we were back in well-organised Austria.

"Berlusconi is an embarrassment."

It is a view shared by Mr Durnwalder, who fears the prime minister has now made Italy a laughing stock around the world.

He discovered this for himself recently during a visit to Nepal, of all places, when two border guards saw his Italian passport, grinned, and proudly uttered the only Italian phrase they knew. Rather than "buongiorno", it turned out to be "bunga bunga" - the nickname for the notorious sex parties that have sullied Mr Berlusconi's name.

"Silvio Berlusconi must go," said Mr Durnwalder.

"I see him maybe twice a year, and we speak on the phone, but he doesn't ask my advice – he only talks about women!" he laughed.

"At the end of the day, for Italy's sake, for the euro's sake, he must resign.

"We are all in the same ship, so if the ship sinks, we all go down with it. Even those in first class."

jeudi 3 novembre 2011

Austerity, pain and other choices..

The Path Not Taken

REYKJAVIK, Iceland

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Paul Krugman

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Financial markets are cheering the deal that emerged from Brussels early Thursday morning. Indeed, relative to what could have happened — an acrimonious failure to agree on anything — the fact that European leaders agreed on something, however vague the details and however inadequate it may prove, is a positive development.

But it’s worth stepping back to look at the larger picture, namely the abject failure of an economic doctrine — a doctrine that has inflicted huge damage both in Europe and in the United States.

The doctrine in question amounts to the assertion that, in the aftermath of a financial crisis, banks must be bailed out but the general public must pay the price. So a crisis brought on by deregulation becomes a reason to move even further to the right; a time of mass unemployment, instead of spurring public efforts to create jobs, becomes an era of austerity, in which government spending and social programs are slashed.

This doctrine was sold both with claims that there was no alternative — that both bailouts and spending cuts were necessary to satisfy financial markets — and with claims that fiscal austerity would actually create jobs. The idea was that spending cuts would make consumers and businesses more confident. And this confidence would supposedly stimulate private spending, more than offsetting the depressing effects of government cutbacks.

Some economists weren’t convinced. One caustic critic referred to claims about the expansionary effects of austerity as amounting to belief in the “confidence fairy.” O.K., that was me.

But the doctrine has, nonetheless, been extremely influential. Expansionary austerity, in particular, has been championed both by Republicans in Congress and by the European Central Bank, which last year urged all European governments — not just those in fiscal distress — to engage in “fiscal consolidation.”

And when David Cameron became Britain’s prime minster last year, he immediately embarked on a program of spending cuts in the belief that this would actually boost the economy — a decision that was greeted with fawning praise by many American pundits.

Now, however, the results are in, and the picture isn’t pretty. Greece has been pushed by its austerity measures into an ever-deepening slump — and that slump, not lack of effort on the part of the Greek government, was the reason a classified report to European leaders concluded last week that the existing program there was unworkable. Britain’s economy has stalled under the impact of austerity, and confidence from both businesses and consumers has slumped, not soared.

Maybe the most telling thing is what now passes for a success story. A few months ago various pundits began hailing the achievements of Latvia, which in the aftermath of a terrible recession, nonetheless, managed to reduce its budget deficit and convince markets that it was fiscally sound. That was, indeed, impressive, but it came at the cost of 16 percent unemployment and an economy that, while finally growing, is still 18 percent smaller than it was before the crisis.

So bailing out the banks while punishing workers is not, in fact, a recipe for prosperity. But was there any alternative? Well, that’s why I’m in Iceland, attending a conference about the country that did something different.

If you’ve been reading accounts of the financial crisis, or watching film treatments like the excellent “Inside Job,” you know that Iceland was supposed to be the ultimate economic disaster story: its runaway bankers saddled the country with huge debts and seemed to leave the nation in a hopeless position.

But a funny thing happened on the way to economic Armageddon: Iceland’s very desperation made conventional behavior impossible, freeing the nation to break the rules. Where everyone else bailed out the bankers and made the public pay the price, Iceland let the banks go bust and actually expanded its social safety net. Where everyone else was fixated on trying to placate international investors, Iceland imposed temporary controls on the movement of capital to give itself room to maneuver.

So how’s it going? Iceland hasn’t avoided major economic damage or a significant drop in living standards. But it has managed to limit both the rise in unemployment and the suffering of the most vulnerable; the social safety net has survived intact, as has the basic decency of its society. “Things could have been a lot worse” may not be the most stirring of slogans, but when everyone expected utter disaster, it amounts to a policy triumph.

And there’s a lesson here for the rest of us: The suffering that so many of our citizens are facing is unnecessary. If this is a time of incredible pain and a much harsher society, that was a choice. It didn’t and doesn’t have to be this way.

mercredi 2 novembre 2011

Siembra el pais que quieres ver...


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A 15 minutos de la Facultad, se encuentra el desempleo

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El Guano en Canteras Foto por Maribel Quiñones, Prensa Comunitaria.

Menos de 15 minutos le tomó a varios estudiantes ver el contraste entre estar dentro del ambiente protegido de la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad Interamericana y caminar por los callejones de la comunidad Península de Cantera, ubicada en Santurce.

“La pobreza tiene cara y nombre, como nosotros”, expresó el capellán de la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad Interamericana, Luis Boris al comenzar el foro “A 15 minutos de la Facultad”. Se celebró el pasado 17 de octubre -Día Internacional para la Erradicación de la Pobreza- con el propósito de sensibilizar a los estudiantes de la facultad sobre la pobreza en Puerto Rico, que vive el 46% de la población. El nombre del evento hace alusión a la cercanía geográfica que hay en Puerto Rico entre las diferentes clases sociales.

Luego de leer el Mensaje del Secretario General de la Orgaización de las Naciones Unidas, Ban Ki-moon, un nutrido grupo de estudiantes contaron sus experiencias en la Comunidad Península de Cantera, como parte de sus hallazgos ‘A 15 minutos de la Facultad’.

Los estudiantes expresaron un mutuo acuerdo de que la pobreza debe tratarse como una violación derechos humanos. Hicieron hincapié en que aunque un

15minfacINTER

La actividad funcionó para sensibilizar a los estudiantes y la facultad sobre la realidad puertorriqueña. Foto por Jesús M. Santos, Prensa Comunitaria.

recorrido de 15 minutos separa a la facultad de sectores pobres, les une la incertidumbre común ante la posibilidad de conseguir empleo. “[Los] estudiantes no tiene certeza de conseguir un trabajo”, denunciaron los allí presentes, una verdad alarmante en Puerto Rico, donde el censo federal ubica el desempleo en un 19%.

Según Pedro Santiago, director de Amnistía Internacional, el desempleo en las Comunidades Especiales llega a ser de un 29% y en los residenciales de un 50%. Por otro lado durante el 2010 el PAN ofreció servicio a 35% (1,323,046 personas) de la población puertorriqueña. Estos datos fueron presentados en el foro ¿Quiénes son los pobres en Puerto Rico?, que se celebró el pasado 2 de octubre en la Escuela de Derecho de la UPR Río Piedras.

“Aquí escuchamos que hay pobreza, pero a la pobreza hay que enfrentarla. Escuchar el día a día de una persona pobre... La pobreza es algo duro”, sostuvo el estudiante Héctor Román Maldonado. Aún ante la dificultad que supone vivir en condiciones precarias, los estudiantes coincidieron en que en sus encuentros “conocimos gente maravillosa”.

“Parte de este proyecto es empezar a valorizar a la gente. Mucho más que las cosas que podamos adquirir. Somos personas por el hecho de estar vivos, y todos tenemos valor. Aquí no estamos victimizándolos, aquí lo que queremos es una oportunidad y todo el mundo la merece”, explicó Román Maldonado.

La fecha del 17 de octubre fue declarado en 1992 por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU). En la Isla, este día está designado por la Oficina del Coordinador General para el Financiamiento Socio-Económico y la Autogestión, adscrita a la Oficina del Gobernador, como la agencia encargada de su implantación, promoción y celebración, bajo el amparo de la Ley Núm. 87 de 22 de marzo de 2003.

La ley expone que el gobernador de turno exhorte anualmente mediante una proclama, a todo el pueblo a promover en esa fecha la erradicación de la pobreza en la Isla. También, plantea que es necesaria la creación de un comité de trabajo que incluya a dos líderes comunitarios. Estos líderes deben representar aquel sector de la población afectado, con el fin de difundir el significado del 17 de octubre, mediante la celebración de actividades que promuevan el desarrollo de las comunidades menos privilegiadas del País.

mardi 1 novembre 2011

Democracy means people first...

Papandréou impose son peuple dans le débat sur la crise

Copyright Reuters
Copyright ReutersCopyright Reuters
À la surprise générale, le Premier ministre grec a annoncé la possible tenue d'un référendum sur le plan d'aide européen à son pays au début de 2012. Sa décision a fait lourdement chuter les marchés. Les dirigeants européens se réunissent ce mercredi en urgence avant le sommet du G20.

Décidément, les plans européens successifs pour résoudre la crise de la dette déclenchée par la Grèce ressemblent de plus en plus à ces usines Potemkine que l'on faisait jadis visiter aux touristes avides du rêve soviétique. Cette fois, il aura suffi de cinq jours pour faire disparaître le timide retour de la confiance née après le sommet de Bruxelles, qui selon Nicolas Sarkozy et Angela Merkel, devait apporter « une solution durable » à la crise de la dette. Car mardi, le feu a repris avec plus de vigueur encore, allumé par Georges Papandréou lui-même. Le Premier ministre grec, confronté à l'exaspération de la population face à une austérité croissante, a décidé de jouer son va-tout lundi en annonçant la tenue d'un référendum début 2012 sur le plan d'aide à son pays.

Ce coup de théâtre a déclenché une forte chute des marchés financiers (lire ci-contre). Les taux payés par l'Italie, devenus le baromètre du risque de contagion dans la zone euro, se sont à nouveau envolés, malgré l'intervention massive de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE). Et la déclaration commune franco-allemande qui se dit déterminée à appliquer les décisions prises la semaine dernière n'ont pas même réussi à freiner le mouvement. Il est vrai que l'accord de Bruxelles, par son flou, n'avait déjà guère convaincu les marchés. Mais il est certain que désormais la tension aura de la peine à retomber. Car que se passera-t-il en cas de « non » grec ? Sans l'aide européenne, Athènes n'aura d'autres choix que de faire un défaut unilatéral sur sa dette, voire de négocier sa sortie de la zone euro. Dans ce cas, la contagion sera bien difficile à stopper pour les autres maillons faibles de la zone. « L'Europe doit se préparer aux cas extrêmes », a prévenu le chef économiste d'Allianz, Michael Heise, dans une note. « Il est désormais essentiel que les détails des nouveaux instruments du plan d'aide et de la décote de la dette grecque soient rapidement rendus publics », ajoute-t-il.

Coup de poker

Du coup, la république hellénique va sans doute devenir le centre des discussions du G20 de Cannes, sommet auquel Georges Papandréou devrait participer. Dès ce mercredi, Angela Merkel et Nicolas Sarkozy mèneront dans la station balnéaire française une série de consultations, en compagnie du FMI, des institutions européennes et du gouvernement grec pour assumer une « mise en oeuvre dans les meilleurs délais » de l'accord du 27 octobre. Mais n'est-il pas déjà trop tard ?

Certes, le pari de Georges Papandréou est risqué. Mais la situation en Grèce présentait un danger réel de pourrissement. Les premiers sondages laissent présager un résultat des plus indécis sur un référendum dont on ne sait pas encore comment sera formulée la question clé. « La volonté du peuple doit s'imposer à nous, a-t-il martelé lundi devant le groupe parlementaire socialiste qui n'en croyait pas ses oreilles, il doit décider si oui ou non il accepte l'accord conclu à Bruxelles. »

Fin politique, le Premier ministre veut mettre un terme à la fronde au sein de son parti, le Pasok. Pour cela, il demandera un vote de confiance vendredi. Mais là aussi l'issue du vote reste incertaine, et le risque d'être mis en minorité sérieux. Ainsi, deux députées parmi ses plus proches soutiens, furieuses d'avoir été mises devant le fait accompli, ont annoncé qu'elles voteraient la censure et une troisième a demandé la constitution d'un gouvernement d'union nationale et l'annulation du référendum. La majorité parlementaire pourrait ne tenir qu'à un fil, 151 sièges sur 300. Mais nombre de députés socialistes savent qu'en cas d'élections anticipées, ils ne retrouveront pas leur siège.

Reste que ce coup de poker est aussi destiné aux dirigeants européens, Allemagne en tête, qui voudrait placer le pays sous un tutorat économique, ce que les Grecs refusent massivement. Georges Papandréou veut obtenir des avancées sur ce plan. C'est le message qu'il a délivré en substance mardi lors de sa discussion téléphonique avec Angela Merkel. Elle a dit « comprendre » sa décision. À la veille du G20, la balle est dans le camp des décideurs européens.

Par Angélique Kourounis à Athènes, avec Romaric Godin et Robert Jules - 01/11/2011,
Que batalla se ha librado y ganado en el mundo diciendo estoy a favor del consenso?