dimanche 26 février 2012

Modernidad en Europa...

" The Democratic Crisis of Capitalism : Reflections on Political and Economic Modernity in Europe "

" The Democratic Crisis of Capitalism : Reflections on Political and Economic Modernity in Europe ", par Peter Wagner
LEQS Paper n° 44, décembre 2011.

Christian Chavagneux
Alternatives Economiques n° 310 - février 2012
couverture
Pourquoi la France fait fausse route
— février 2012 —

La question n'est pas nouvelle et nombre de grands auteurs s'en sont saisis. Ainsi, pour Adam Smith, "jamais Nation n'aurait prospéré si la prospérité ne se trouvait qu'où règnent la parfaite liberté et la parfaite justice ". De même, Jean-Baptiste Say souligne que le despote éclairé, c'est-à-dire libéral sur le plan économique, peut obtenir des résultats : "Henri IV ne fut pas un des moins despotes des rois de France, et cependant la France prospéra sous son règne, parce qu'on n'y tracassait pas les particuliers." D'où l'intérêt de ce petit document de travail du professeur Peter Wagner de l'université de Barcelone qui revient sur les principaux arguments avancés dans ce débat.

L'évolution du monde depuis une cinquantaine d'années semble montrer un mouvement inéluctable et concomitant de vagues de démocratisation (en Europe du Sud, en Amérique latine, en Europe de l'Est…) et de développement d'un capitalisme de plus en plus mondialisé et libéral. Il n'en fallait pas plus aux partisans de la fin de l'Histoire pour en conclure que les deux mouvements s'expliquent l'un l'autre et marquent la stabilisation d'un modèle contemporain de modernité s'appuyant sur la même idée de liberté.

De l'autre côté du spectre idéologique, pour Karl Marx et les théoriciens de l'école de Frankfort (Theodor W. Adorno, Max Horkheimer), le capitalisme libéral ne permet qu'une démocratie temporaire, vite abandonnée dès que les intérêts du capital sont en jeu. De même, pour les héritiers du philosophe italien Antonio Gramsci, le capitalisme redistribue un peu de ses profits pour assurer la paix sociale, mais n'hésite pas à remettre en cause cet Etat-providence dès qu'il a le besoin d'en diminuer les coûts.

Une réponse aux crises

Pour Peter Wagner, l'histoire longue montre que les périodes de capitalisme sans démocratie ont été plus fréquentes que l'inverse. Au cours du XIXe siècle, même lorsque la démocratie a commencé à se développer, le suffrage universel est resté limité dans les pays en cours d'industrialisation. Et quand il était en place, il était réservé à une petite élite masculine de propriétaires. Les Français ont pu voter à partir de 1848, mais les Françaises ont dû attendre 1946.

La démocratie, nous dit l'auteur, n'est finalement que la réponse apportée aux crises du capitalisme. Celles-ci prennent la forme d'une instabilité chronique de l'économie de marché, laquelle s'accompagne d'inégalités croissantes et de détérioration des conditions de vie pour un grand nombre. Tout ceci conduit à une demande de démocratie qui finit par être entendue par les élites. Car celles-ci sont soucieuses, d'une part, d'éviter les grèves et, d'autre part, de lâcher du lest à des citoyens qui sont aussi les consommateurs qui assurent leur prospérité.

Or, la mondialisation, en introduisant une rupture entre des pratiques capitalistes globalisées et des espaces de décision politique nationaux ne permet plus de répondre comme hier aux demandes de démocratisation. La voie d'une démocratie mondiale restant du domaine de l'utopie, le monde actuel pousse à une action politique régionale susceptible de redonner une capacité d'intervention politique. Mais les difficultés d'intégration de l'Union européenne montrent que cette voie est loin d'être facile et que le progrès démocratique devra réfléchir à d'autres chemins.

" The Democratic Crisis of Capitalism : Reflections on Political and Economic Modernity in Europe ", par Peter Wagner
LEQS Paper n° 44, décembre 2011.

samedi 28 janvier 2012

Wales, the Greece of Britain...

The Welsh Economy Slips, but London Cushions the Fall

Andrew Testa for The New York Times

A mountain view of Blaenau Ffestiniog, Wales, an industrial town that has seen better days.

BLAENAU FFESTINIOG, Wales — This could have been Britain’sGreece.

Infusions in the billions of pounds keep fading towns like Blaenau Ffestiniog alive.

Andrew Testa for The New York Times

A functioning slate quarry in Blaenau Ffestiniog is a reminder of the town's past.

Andrew Testa for The New York Times

The artist David Nash hopes his sculpture will be part of a plan to draw tourists.

For decades, Wales, like Greece, has been plagued by persistent deficits and uncompetitive industries. Yet unlike Greece, which teeters on the edge of bankruptcy and faces a possible exit from the euro zone — the 17 European Union members that use the euro — this semi-autonomous country suffers no threat of running out of cash or being forced to abandon the British pound, which it shares with other members of Britain’s own political and monetary union: Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.

This year Wales, including this fading slate mining town in one of Britain’s poorest counties, is expected to receive about £14.6 billion, or $22.6 billion, from the central government. The money is used to cover what Wales cannot raise itself from taxes and borrowing.

Most people do not think of Britain — home to many of Europe’s most outspoken euro skeptics — as having a monetary union. But it does, and these money transfers are the essence of what makes Britain’s common currency a success in knitting together a collection of regions and historically separate countries with different languages, cultures and economic profiles.

As a sovereign nation, Greece has had free rein to recklessly spend and borrow, the result of which is its near-bankrupt condition. Wales, by comparison, has limited tax and borrowing capabilities, and the money it gets each year to fulfill its spending needs comes automatically from the British treasury.

And therein lies the lesson for the euro zone: until it can find a way to ensure that its poorer nations can manage their fiscal affairs, countries like Greece and Portugal that run constant budget deficits will become increasingly dependent on transfers from richer countries like Germany. For Britain, such a transfer is accepted as the cost of keeping the union together.

By contrast, Europe’s richer nations, led by Germany, resist institutionalizing any substantial flow of money toward Greece apart from a modest amount of development aid long made available to Europe’s poorer regions for specific projects. In Germany, the notion of a so-called transfer union, which many economists see as essential to any enduring common currency, is still firmly resisted.

As a result, Greece, along with Portugal and Ireland, is dependent on negotiating individual bailouts with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in a torturous process that risks collapse at almost any turn.

“Wales is part of a fiscal union, a nation state in which the political culture is cohesive enough to legitimize these fiscal transfers,” said Kevin Morgan, an economist at Cardiff University who is an expert on Britain’s north/south divide. “But what works at the national level breaks down at the supranational level.”

As in the euro zone, there are questions even within Britain about the value of its union. But they are driven more by political and cultural divisions than monetary ones. The Scottish national leader Alex Salmond is pushing for a vote that might provide Scotland independence from Britain, while remaining vague on whether the Scots should then abandon the pound to adopt the euro.

In terms of economic contribution to their respective monetary unions, both Wales and Greece are roughly equal, packing a fairly weak punch of about 3 percent. Both are heavily dependent on public spending. Wales is even poorer than Greece, generating agross domestic product equal to $23,100 per person, compared with Greece’s G.D.P. of $26,900 per person.

Despite the similar economic profiles, Britain is far more generous with Wales than the European Union is with Greece. Compared with the nearly $23 billion in funds London sends to Wales every year, which is used to bolster local tax revenue and pay for services like health care and education, Greece receives on average about 2.9 billion euros a year in structural funds, or $3.7 billion, devoted mostly at specific development projects.

It is not just Wales that benefits from British transfers. In 2011, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland together received £54 billion, or $83.7 billion, a sum that is almost twice the level of British military spending.

The yearly transfer payments total about 3.5 percent of Britain’s G.D.P.

Robert A. Mundell, the Nobel Prize-winning Canadian economist whom many see as the intellectual father of the euro, cited a willingness to move money from richer areas to poorer ones as a crucial component of any nation or group of nations bound together by a successful monetary union, pointing to Britain and the United States as examples. The other central requirements of an effective currency zone, he argued, were free trade in goods and services, the ability of workers to move easily from one place to another, and roughly similar economic cycles.

Blaenau Ffestiniog (pronounced Blay-NIGH Fes-TIN-ee-og) presents a stark tableau of just how such a currency area works to soften the wide disparities even within a relatively small and cohesive country like Britain.

More than a century ago, Blaenau was a thriving industrial town of more than 10,000 people, churning out slate slabs that roofed houses the world over. The residue now covers the hills that surround the town, casting a pall that mirrors its economic condition. Since undercut by cheaper slate varieties from Spain and China, the mines no longer provide many jobs, and the town’s steadily shrinking population is now below 5,000.

It is a proud settlement where virtually everyone is bilingual. Conversation at work and in and around town is mostly in Welsh rather than English.

While more people are leaving Greece as the economy worsens, greater language and cultural barriers make it harder for Greeks to move easily to Germany or Italy than for a resident of Blaenau to settle in Birmingham or London, perhaps never to return.

A quarter of the town’s population receives unemployment benefits and the average income is a mere £10,600, half the national average. The town lost its last dentist five years ago.

“There are just too few people chasing too few jobs,” Phil Rogers, a slate mason, said one evening recently as he sipped a pint of ale on the town’s threadbare main street. Mr. Rogers says he is earning no more today than he did 10 years ago, but while times are hard and he often traps squirrels and rabbits to supplement his diet, he says he manages to get by.

“The welfare state — it’s pretty good, isn’t it?” he said with a wink.

But such a safety net does not come cheap. Of the money flowing to Wales this year, 42 percent is destined to pay for health and social services, including free prescription drugs and home day care for the elderly, a critical support for towns with a rapidly aging population like Blaenau’s.

The town is embarking on an ambitious project to make it more appealing to tourists, including the construction of a mountain biking complex. Local officials hope that the investments will reverse the town’s fortunes, economically as well as psychologically.

“People see themselves in a declining town,” said Bob Cole, the chairman of the local group here that has pushed for the project. “We are saying, ‘Look, we are now on the up.’ ”

While the European Union contributes substantially to such projects, the transfer payments from Britain’s more prosperous south keep the town alive as its tax base shrivels and demand for welfare services increases.

For some here, that dependence is galling — especially now as Scotland’s bid for independence gathers steam.

“We have a better understanding of what to do with our money than a bunch of millionaires in London,” said Paul Thomas, the town official who represents Blaenau at the local county seat and who is also a member of Wales’s nationalist party, Plaid Cymru.

But as the bite of the recession grows worse and the need for help from the south becomes more acute, such a view is distinctly a minority one.

“It’s good to be part of the United Kingdom,” said Glenys Lloyd, a local inn owner. “I was born in Wales, but in the end I’m British, aren’t I?”

mercredi 25 janvier 2012

trade gap between US and China...

iPadded

The trade gap between America and China is much exaggerated

AMERICA’S trade deficit with China hit another record last year. Estimated at almost $300 billion, it made up over 40% of America’s total deficit. Yet official data grossly overstate US imports from China.

Take the iPad, which America imports from China even though it is entirely designed and owned by Apple, an American company. iPads are assembled in Chinese factories owned by Foxconn, a Taiwanese firm, largely from parts produced outside China. According to astudy by the Personal Computing Industry Centre, each iPad sold in America adds $275, the total production cost, to America’s trade deficit with China, yet the value of the actual work performed in China accounts for only $10. Using these numbers, The Economist estimates that iPads accounted for around $4 billion of America’s reported trade deficit with China in 2011; but if China’s exports were measured on a value-added basis, the deficit was only $150m.

The chart shows a geographical breakdown of the retail price of an iPad. The main rewards go to American shareholders and workers. Apple’s profit amounts to about 30% of the sales price. Product design, software development and marketing are based in America. Add in the profits and wages of American suppliers, and distribution and retail costs, and America retains about half the total value of an iPad sold there. The next biggest gainers are South Korean firms like Samsung and LG, which provide the display and memory chips, whose profits account for 7% of an iPad’s value. The main financial benefit to China is wages paid to workers for assembling the product and for manufacturing some inputs—equivalent to only 2% of the retail price.

 Find out how much of an Apple iPhone is actually a Samsung with our "teardown" infographic

China’s small contribution to total costs suggests that a yuan appreciation would have little impact on its exports. A 20% rise in the yuan would add less than 1% to the import price of an iPad. For imports such as clothing and toys the Chinese value added is much higher. But electrical machinery and equipment, with more complex cross-border supply chains, make up one-quarter of China’s exports to America. Pascal Lamy, the head of the World Trade Organisation, has suggested that if trade statistics reflected true domestic content, America’s deficit with China might be more than halved.

Que batalla se ha librado y ganado en el mundo diciendo estoy a favor del consenso?